Jump to content

tarheelg61581

Members
  • Content Count

    230
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by tarheelg61581

  1. It's only about a year away before the officials in charge of realignment will begin looking at the new set of conferences for the four year cycle to run from 2021-2025....With this year's ADM numbers, I started tinkering with some numbers and realize they have quite a dilemma, and must say that I quickly discovered exactly why they went with the 20/30/30/20 model for the 2017-2021 cycle. As you might guess, if you follow high school sports (or politics) in NC and read a lot of message board banter, the primary complicating issue is charter schools: For years and years, the 25% rule worked well to separate the four classes, but now with SO many schools with enrollments of 300 or less, many of whom do not have a football program, going 25% across the board would put 104-105 schools in each class, but in 1A, only 68 of the 104 current schools in the bottom 25% of all schools actually have a football program. As many more charter schools have applied to open over the next few years, the number of non-football 1A schools will most likely continue to increase. What the NCHSAA did for the 2017 realignment, to offset this problem of a disproportionate number of 1A schools without football, was go to a 20%/30%/30%/20%, using only the football playing schools (about 380) from the total number (about 420), then when they set the ADM range for 1A/2A/3A/4A, then went back and plugged in the non-football schools in the appropriate class, so we wound up with something like 78 4A schools, 114 3A schools, 116 2A schools (DSA & NCSSM without football), and 111 1A schools (including about 75 with football plus about 36 without it). Looking ahead to 2021, many are clamoring to return to the old 25/25/25/25, but here's the problem: If we go to a straight 25/25/25/25 and use the same process of taking out the non-football schools to set the range for each class, then add them in after the class range is set, then we wind up with something like: 95 schools in 4A, 96 schools in 3A, 97 schools in 2A (these all seem reasonable) BUT....132 in 1A, with potentially 4 or 5 new ones added every year or two as more charter schools open...and bear in mind, about 36 or more of them do not have football)....perhaps the board of directors or realignment committee or whoever decides such matters would be ok with this, as it would allow both 1A & 4A football playoffs to probably go back to allowing 64 teams to qualify instead of 48. I think the most troubling aspect of this plan (if football schools are taken out when setting the range) is not that there are 132 1A schools, but that the ranges would be as follows: 1A would be ADM up to ~725.....2A would be ADM ~734-1019.....3A would be ADM ~1023-1506.....and 4A would be ADM ~1507 and up For what it's worth, if they use the same 20/30/30/20 process they used for the 2017 realignment, and take out the non-football schools when setting the class ranges, right now we would be looking at approximately 76 4A schools, 116 3A schools, 115 2A schools, and 111 1A schools (only about 75 with football). The class range cut lines would be as follows: 1A ADM up to 626....2A ADM from 628-1013.....3A ADM from 1014-1596.....4A ADM from 1622-3513 If they go to a straight up 25/25/25/25 and not take into account whether or not a school has a football program....That would put 104-105 schools in each class, and allow 4A to probably go back to 64 teams in the playoffs (and 1A in many sports, not football though), and the cut lines would be as follows: 1A: ADM up to 592.....2A would be ADM 596-943.....3A would be ADM 944-1480......4A would be ADM 1482-3513. Many schools will probably look much different next year, but remember one thing, just like every year if you go into the A or AA subdivisions for the playoffs: It's not just about whether or not your school goes up or down; it's about how much you rise or fall, RELATIVE TO EVERYBODY ELSE
  2. tarheelg61581

    baseball preview

    Now that we are to the point where almost everybody has played a few conference games, I will soon start to check scores every day and work on potential bracketology for 1A & 2A as the playoffs get closer....over here at South Granville, we have been off to a slow start, sitting at 3-6 and 2-4 in conference play....definitely lost to graduation from last year's team that made it 4th round and lost to eventual state champion Whiteville in extra innings....the guys that did return and a couple of newcomers have been in every game; they say it's just part of baseball when you lose a close one where the ball just didn't bounce your way or an error or mental mistake or questionable call comes back to haunt you but we've seen that time after time after time in these six losses...in both road losses to county rivals JF Webb & Granville Central, we lost by one run, in which multiple errors in the 1st inning led to a flurry of unearned runs that proved to be too much to overcome...in the two conference losses to Bunn, in the road game, our starter had a no-hitter through 4 innings but our bats never woke up to drive in any runs, despite out-hitting the home team; and their one big inning late proved decisive...in our home against Bunn, SG led 2-1 in 6th and allowed a big inning...also 2 tough losses to Nash Central, at home led 6-0 in 5th and went on to lose 10-6 on a flurry of walks, hit batters, and a couple of hits, on the road, it was much like the Bunn game when it felt like a pitchers duel for a while, but the home team eventually prevailed with a big inning late...all three of our wins were 5 inning games at home, two of them against those county rivals that we lost to on the road by one run thanks to unearned runs, and one against Carrboro, who is very, very young this year...long way to go this season, hoping the Vikings can get to the playoffs, and then you see what happens...Northern Carolina 1A/2A conference race taken some crazy turns already with Louisburg sitting at 5-0 in first place right now, with a win over Roanoke Rapids, and Bunn's only loss was to Roanoke Rapids, who they beat by one run at home, but lost by 10 runs on the road...RR & Lou haven't played their second game yet thanks to weather, whoever finishes first might have 2 or 3 losses by the end
  3. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    It's that time again....Click here if you want to play....no entry fee; no real prizes other than the satisfaction of knowing you beat out the other message board posters
  4. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    Top 5 for each bracket 4AA 1-marsGreen 47 2-tarheelg 46 3-4th & Goal 44 4-JB Cobb III 44 5-Quick Snap 43 4A 1-Steven Graham 53 2-Joey Austin 49 3-Ohio Tarheels 49 4-Quick Snap 49 5-Christopher McDonald 48 6-Charles Graham 48 3AA 1-heater32 57 2-tarheelg 54 3-Fletch 54 4-Funaholic 46 5-LTownWolvesFan 42 3A 1-dhoyle 63 2-LTownWolvesFan 63 3-Fletch 62 4-MHSBlueDevilsAre#1 60 5-Braveheart 60 2AA 1-drewd1313 74 2-Bigdawg_33 73 3-J.brooks9922 62 4-Cgrimm5434 59 5-Ohio Tarheels 58 2A 1-jward28 69 2-Funaholic 67 3-Fletch 64 4-marsGreen 64 5-G-man 63 1AA 1-Trevei Z Foreman 54 2-TVILLEDAWG 53 3-Wayne/fnffan 52 4-Fletch 50 5-Ohio Tarheels 50 1A 1-tarheelg 68 2-Fletch 65 3-Wayne/fnffan 64 4-AaronCody83 64 5-Ohio Tarheels 62
  5. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    Overall (for those who completed all 8 brackets) 1-Fletch 427 (Top 5 in 5 of the 8 brackets; 2nd straight year as overall winner) 2-tarheelg 372 3-Funaholic 370 4-drewd1313 366 5-LTownWolvesFan 366 6-slugger88 360 7-Ohio Tarheels 351 8-Kevin L Bowers 347 9-AaronCody83 340 10-Wayne/fnffan 335 11-prg2079 317 12-maloneyp168 314 13-heater32 310 14-mikejameswcu66 297 15-Trevei Z Foreman 294 16-TVILLEDAWG 288 17-currinzack 286 18-dhoyle 285 19-JB Cobb III 279 20-Bigraider 278 21-REDOKTOBER27 261
  6. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    It's that time again....Click here if you want to play....no entry fee; no real prizes other than the satisfaction of knowing you beat out the other message board posters
  7. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    Results & Winners (No real prizes other than the satisfaction of knowing that you won)...Thanks for all who filled out a bracket; be sure to congratulate the winners if you recognize somebody 4AA 1-marsGreen 47 2-tarheelg 46 3-4th & Goal 44 4-JB Cobb III 44 5-Quick Snap 43 4A 1-Steven Graham 53 2-Joey Austin 49 3-Ohio Tarheels 49 4-Quick Snap 49 5-Christopher McDonald 48 6-Charles Graham 48 3AA 1-heater32 57 2-tarheelg 54 3-Fletch 54 4-Funaholic 46 5-LTownWolvesFan 42 3A 1-dhoyle 63 2-LTownWolvesFan 63 3-Fletch 62 4-MHSBlueDevilsAre#1 60 5-Braveheart 60 2AA 1-drewd1313 74 2-Bigdawg_33 73 3-J.brooks9922 62 4-Cgrimm5434 59 5-Ohio Tarheels 58 2A 1-jward28 69 2-Funaholic 67 3-Fletch 64 4-marsGreen 64 5-G-man 63 1AA 1-Trevei Z Foreman 54 2-TVILLEDAWG 53 3-Wayne/fnffan 52 4-Fletch 50 5-Ohio Tarheels 50 1A 1-tarheelg 68 2-Fletch 65 3-Wayne/fnffan 64 4-AaronCody83 64 5-Ohio Tarheels 62 Overall (for those who completed all 8 brackets) 1-Fletch 427 (Top 5 in 5 of the 8 brackets; 2nd straight year as overall winner) 2-tarheelg 372 3-Funaholic 370 4-drewd1313 366 5-LTownWolvesFan 366 6-slugger88 360 7-Ohio Tarheels 351 8-Kevin L Bowers 347 9-AaronCody83 340 10-Wayne/fnffan 335 11-prg2079 317 12-maloneyp168 314 13-heater32 310 14-mikejameswcu66 297 15-Trevei Z Foreman 294 16-TVILLEDAWG 288 17-currinzack 286 18-dhoyle 285 19-JB Cobb III 279 20-Bigraider 278 21-REDOKTOBER27 261
  8. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    It's that time again....Click here if you want to play....no entry fee; no real prizes other than the satisfaction of knowing you beat out the other message board posters
  9. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    Results & Winners (No real prizes other than the satisfaction of knowing that you won)...Thanks for all who filled out a bracket; be sure to congratulate the winners if you recognize somebody 4AA 1-marsGreen 47 2-tarheelg 46 3-4th & Goal 44 4-JB Cobb III 44 5-Quick Snap 43 4A 1-Steven Graham 53 2-Joey Austin 49 3-Ohio Tarheels 49 4-Quick Snap 49 5-Christopher McDonald 48 6-Charles Graham 48 3AA 1-heater32 57 2-tarheelg 54 3-Fletch 54 4-Funaholic 46 5-LTownWolvesFan 42 3A 1-dhoyle 63 2-LTownWolvesFan 63 3-Fletch 62 4-MHSBlueDevilsAre#1 60 5-Braveheart 60 2AA 1-drewd1313 74 2-Bigdawg_33 73 3-J.brooks9922 62 4-Cgrimm5434 59 5-Ohio Tarheels 58 2A 1-jward28 69 2-Funaholic 67 3-Fletch 64 4-marsGreen 64 5-G-man 63 1AA 1-Trevei Z Foreman 54 2-TVILLEDAWG 53 3-Wayne/fnffan 52 4-Fletch 50 5-Ohio Tarheels 50 1A 1-tarheelg 68 2-Fletch 65 3-Wayne/fnffan 64 4-AaronCody83 64 5-Ohio Tarheels 62 Overall (for those who completed all 8 brackets) 1-Fletch 427 (Top 5 in 5 of the 8 brackets; 2nd straight year as overall winner) 2-tarheelg 372 3-Funaholic 370 4-drewd1313 366 5-LTownWolvesFan 366 6-slugger88 360 7-Ohio Tarheels 351 8-Kevin L Bowers 347 9-AaronCody83 340 10-Wayne/fnffan 335 11-prg2079 317 12-maloneyp168 314 13-heater32 310 14-mikejameswcu66 297 15-Trevei Z Foreman 294 16-TVILLEDAWG 288 17-currinzack 286 18-dhoyle 285 19-JB Cobb III 279 20-Bigraider 278 21-REDOKTOBER27 261
  10. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    It's that time again....Click here if you want to play....no entry fee; no real prizes other than the satisfaction of knowing you beat out the other message board posters
  11. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    Results & Winners (No real prizes other than the satisfaction of knowing that you won)...Thanks for all who filled out a bracket; be sure to congratulate the winners if you recognize somebody 4AA 1-marsGreen 47 2-tarheelg 46 3-4th & Goal 44 4-JB Cobb III 44 5-Quick Snap 43 4A 1-Steven Graham 53 2-Joey Austin 49 3-Ohio Tarheels 49 4-Quick Snap 49 5-Christopher McDonald 48 6-Charles Graham 48 3AA 1-heater32 57 2-tarheelg 54 3-Fletch 54 4-Funaholic 46 5-LTownWolvesFan 42 3A 1-dhoyle 63 2-LTownWolvesFan 63 3-Fletch 62 4-MHSBlueDevilsAre#1 60 5-Braveheart 60 2AA 1-drewd1313 74 2-Bigdawg_33 73 3-J.brooks9922 62 4-Cgrimm5434 59 5-Ohio Tarheels 58 2A 1-jward28 69 2-Funaholic 67 3-Fletch 64 4-marsGreen 64 5-G-man 63 1AA 1-Trevei Z Foreman 54 2-TVILLEDAWG 53 3-Wayne/fnffan 52 4-Fletch 50 5-Ohio Tarheels 50 1A 1-tarheelg 68 2-Fletch 65 3-Wayne/fnffan 64 4-AaronCody83 64 5-Ohio Tarheels 62 Overall (for those who completed all 8 brackets) 1-Fletch 427 (Top 5 in 5 of the 8 brackets; 2nd straight year as overall winner) 2-tarheelg 372 3-Funaholic 370 4-drewd1313 366 5-LTownWolvesFan 366 6-slugger88 360 7-Ohio Tarheels 351 8-Kevin L Bowers 347 9-AaronCody83 340 10-Wayne/fnffan 335 11-prg2079 317 12-maloneyp168 314 13-heater32 310 14-mikejameswcu66 297 15-Trevei Z Foreman 294 16-TVILLEDAWG 288 17-currinzack 286 18-dhoyle 285 19-JB Cobb III 279 20-Bigraider 278 21-REDOKTOBER27 261
  12. tarheelg61581

    First Flight at North Davidson

    I believe not going would result in a fine.....they had the chance to opt out of the playoffs, but that has to be done ahead of time, not after the brackets are released
  13. tarheelg61581

    Friendly Bracket Picking Contest

    Well, see that's what makes it interesting.....most people on here only see their team, who their team plays, maybe film from who the teams you played have played, maybe an occasional game you went to watch when your team wasn't playing, and highlights from others in your area on the local news....other than that, we have very little to go on, other than things published online
  14. My revised projections with THIS YEAR's ADM numbers.....still a guessing game as we wait for this week's games to be played, not to mention the final adjusted maxpreps rankings, which are not published until the preliminary brackets go up
  15. tarheelg61581

    ADM numbers are out

    Here's your 2A ADM list, and I drew a line between my current projected 2A/2AA cut line....which could (probably will change by Saturday morning) Vance Co. 1437 (heard they're going to 3A next year, had been split into Northern Vance & Southern Vance since around 1990) North Davidson 1144 Durham Sch. of the Arts 1107 Hibriten 1034 St. Pauls 1027 Ledford 1023 SG Atkins 1019 South Point 999 Nash Central 990 Pisgah 990 North Lincoln 988 Currituck Co. 983 Forest Hills 980 South Rowan 972 HM Cummings 965 Central Davidson 952 East Duplin 951 East Lincoln 950 Roanoke Rapids 938 Franklin 933 West Craven 931 Wilkes Central 929 Anson Co. 919 East Henderson 901 Bunn 898 Dixon 896 Washington 895 Richlands 891 FT Foard 886 East Burke 884 Ruth.-Spin. Central 884 Salisbury 884 Shelby 884 West Stokes 880 Carrboro 877 East Gaston 872 Ashe Co. 871 Central Academy 871 East Davidson 871 Bunker Hill 866 North Lenoir 863 Mount Pleasant 861 Jordan Matthews 860 West Iredell 860 Newton-Conover 856 Croatan 852 First Flight 846 Hertford Co. 846 Bandys 842 West Lincoln 840 Forbush 839 Smoky Mountain 838 SW Edgecombe 838 Current Projected 2A/2AA Cut Line South Granville 836 Randleman 834 Maiden 832 TW Andrews 830 North Surry 826 CD Owen 821 RL Patton 821 Clinton 808 Wheatmore 808 Graham 806 Lake Norman Charter 805 North Pitt 799 Lexington 798 Brevard 789 Midway 788 East Rutherford 786 Goldsboro 784 Chase 783 West Davidson 780 Lincolnton 775 ET Beddingfield 770 Madison Co. 767 Hendersonville 766 Pasquotank Co. 766 Farmville Central 764 Bartlett Yancey 762 West Stanly 757 South Columbus 750 West Wilkes 750 Greene Central 749 South Lenoir 746 JF Webb 743 North Johnston 742 Providence Grove 740 SW Onslow 736 Heide Trask 736 Oak Grove 732 (only 9th-11th grade this year) Walkertown 725 Red Springs 717 Surry Central 715 Reidsville 708 Spring Creek 705 Trinity 696 Whiteville 692 West Bladen 688 NC Sch. of Sci. & Math 678 North Wilkes 677 James Kenan 676 Bertie Co. 675 Mountain Heritage 665 Northeastern 662 Thomasville 659 Ayden-Grifton 653 Eastern Randolph 648 Kinston 647 East Bladen 637 Wallace-Rose Hill 628 JC Draughn 618 Fairmont 616 East Montgomery 590 GW Carver 582 Warren Co. 578
  16. tarheelg61581

    Updated 2A/2AA Bracketology with new ADM numbers

    Yes, but of course Wheatmore needs to take care of business against Providence Grove this week to lock up that very high seed......only to get to play Providence Grove again in the 1st Rd....unless PG jumps over Patton or drops below Owen
  17. tarheelg61581

    Updated 2A/2AA Bracketology with new ADM numbers

    Yes, read the parenthetical details beside all four of those.....ED (2AAE) and Clinton/JK/WRH (2AE) are going to stay in the same bracket but they could change tiers....the spot I projected them is based on their current ranking/rating, and showing what happens if the favorites win this week (ED over WRH and Clinton over JK)....we all know once those games start, the power rating doesn't matter, but those will be easy adjustments to seeds once we get the final scores....they won't cause any shifts in 2A/2AA and E/W, or affect who's in or out of the playoffs....unless any of these teams (or others projected among the 64 currently in) get into a knock down drag out brawl and have a lot of ejections and can't go to the playoffs, hopefully they'll avoid any stupidity
  18. tarheelg61581

    Bracketology Rough Draft

    We are still missing this year's ADM numbers, but thankfully, the state did publish a new version of Adjusted Maxpreps Rankings, (missing at least one game played Monday night for some reason, but we will take it), which was probably the last update until they release the final Adjusted Maxpreps Rankings with the brackets, whenever they are released (hopefully Saturday; don't be surprised if it's Monday....website says the reporting deadline is Saturday, Nov. 10 (and I'm not an AD, not sure if that means have it in by midnight Friday so they can release brackets Saturday, or if it means by midnight Saturday, so they can release brackets on Monday [or possibly, but doubtfully Sunday?]) Bear in mind, as always, there are a number of teams very close to where the cut line last year for 2A/2AA, and East/West in both subdivisions. Expect a few twists after the games this Friday night, which will affect the final rankings, which will affect the 64 teams that qualify for the playoffs....which will affect where the 2A/2AA cutline is....which will also affect where the East/West cut line is. If you would like to see a detailed explanation of this year's qualifying and seeding format, click here for the link to HighSchoolOT's article Anyway, below is a tentative rough draft that I will attempt to keep edited, as updates become available over the next few days, such as final scores from games this week, and the all-important new ADM numbers. Also, remember that it is a multi-step process to figure out the information below. First, the 64 teams in the 2A classification who qualified for the playoffs must be determined, then those 64 are split into the 2A & 2AA subdivisions, based on the school's Average Daily Membership numbers for this school year. The projections below are based on last year's numbers, because at press time, this year's have not yet been released. Then, after the 2A/2AA is established, the East/West cutline is established in both subdivisions. Remember that any time one team jumps into the 64 teams in the playoffs, another team is bumped from the field, causing teams to slide across the 2A/2AA cut line and/or the East/West cutline, so many teams' fate on Seeding Saturday (hopefully not next Monday) could look much different than what is posted below in this rough draft. Note there are some disclaimers and explanations of potential changes, but another disclaimer, right here is that it is very possible that I missed something. 2AA West Tier of Conference #1s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 1-Pisgah (1) 2-Hibriten (6) 3-Bandys (7) 4-Shelby (13) 5-Ashe Co. (19) 6-Mount Pleasant (39) ------------------------ Tier of Conference #2s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 7-North Lincoln (17) 8-Smoky Mountain (20) 9-South Point (26) 10-Fred T. Foard (47) 11-North Surry (51) (possible they could drop to small 2A) -------------------------- Tier of At-Large/Wild Card playoff berths , seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 12-Franklin (33) 13-Maiden (37) 14-Robert L. Patton (49) 15-East Henderson (60) (Hoping for no other teams to have a Maxpreps Miracle and bump them out of the playoffs) 16-East Lincoln (63) (Hoping for no other teams to have a Maxpreps Miracle and bump them out of the playoffs) 2AA East Tier of Conference #1s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 1-South Granville (2) (could trade places with Randleman, depending on final rankings, there is also a slight possibility that SG could go to small 2A, depending on how many [or few] students get added to the ADM from Granville Early College) 2-Randleman (4) (could trade places with South Granville, depending on final rankings) 3-SouthWest Edgecombe (5) (there is a possibility that SW Edgecombe could go to small 2A) 4-Ledford (8) (there is a possibility that Ledford could move to the West bracket) 5-East Duplin (14) (Must beat Wallace-Rose Hill AND have Clinton beat James Kenan to stay in tier of 1s....a loss to W-RH means ED drops to tier of wild cards....ED win & JK win puts ED in tier of 2s) 6-West Stokes (24) (depending on how things shake out, West Stokes could very easily move to the West bracket, and/or drop to small 2A) ----------------------------- Tier of Conference #2s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 7-North Davidson (21) (there is a possibility that North Davidson could move to the West bracket) 8-West Craven (32) 9-Hugh M. Cummings (65) (Can move up to tier of 1s with an upset win over Reidsville) 10-Croatan (68) (could move up to tier of 1s with upset win over SW Onslow) ---------------------------- Tier of Conference #3s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 11-Bunn (45) (Notice that Bunn's conference does not have a team projected in the tier of 2s in 2A or 2AA...it is a split conference, and the 1A division champion Granville Central actually finished 2nd overall in the standings...the 2A division is guaranteed two automatic bids, but a team must actually finish 2nd overall to be seeded in the tier of 2s, therefore Bunn is alone in a tier of 3s....Bunn needs to beat Roanoke Rapids to solidify this spot...if they lose that game, there is a three way tie for third place in the conference including those two teams plus Vance Co., and a random draw could determine which one is in the tier of 3s, which one will definitely be a wild card, and which one would be in danger of missing the playoffs, depending on what else happens this week) Tier of At-Large/Wild Card playoff berths, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 12-Currituck Co. (35) 13-St. Pauls (44) 14-Richlands (56) (needs to beat Lejeune to solidify this position, or else they are opening the door for others to bump them out) 15-Washington (61) (needs to beat North Lenoir to solidify this position, or else they are opening the door for others to bump them out) 16-Vance Co. (67) (Vance is currently projected to be the last team in; they are hoping for a Bunn win over Roanoke Rapids to stay alone in 4th place in the conference; a three way tie opens the door to a possibility of being left out, if they drew the short straw, of course they could also move up to the tier of 3s if there is a three way tie, also hoping for no other teams to have a last minute Maxpreps Miracle and bump them out of the playoffs) --------------------------- 2A West Tier of Conference #1s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 1-Reidsville (11) (Must beat Cummings to hold on to this spot, or else they would drop to the tier of 2s) 2-Mountain Heritage (12) ------------------------- Tier of Conference #2s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 3-Wheatmore (18) (must beat Providence Grove to solidify this position, loss opens door to three way tie with Eastern Randolph & Providence Grove) 4-West Stanly (34) ------------------------- Tier of Conference #3s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 5-Salisbury (48) ----------------------- Tier of At-Large/Wild Card playoff berths , seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 6-West Lincoln (22) (there is a possibility that West Lincoln could go to 2AA) 7-East Rutherford (23) 8-Brevard (25) 9-Eastern Randolph (27) (could move up if Providence Grove beats Wheatmore, forcing a three way tie for 2nd) 10-Hendersonville (38) 11-Thomasville (40) 12-Providence Grove (52) (could move up with a win over Wheatmore, forcing a three way for 2nd, with Eastern Randolph also in play to possibly move up) 13-Charles D. Owen (59) 14-Oak Grove (62) (can seemingly clinch playoff berth with win over Salisbury, possibly in danger of falling out of playoffs altogether with a loss in that game; not sure how the rankings will be affected) 15-Carrboro (64) (needs a win over Jordan-Matthews to solidify this position; hoping for no other teams to have a last minute Maxpreps Miracle and bump them out of the playoffs, see Lexington below at 16, could also slide to the East bracket)\ 16-Lexington (66) (hoping for no other teams to have a last minute Maxpreps Miracle and bump them out of the playoffs, biggest dangers would be a Roanoke Rapids win over Bunn, or if Red Springs found a way in, which would happen if they can beat St. Pauls AND West Bladen, and/or also possibly a North Wilkes win over Elkin) 2A East Tier of Conference #1s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 1-Northeastern (3) 2-South Columbus (9) (needs to beat East Bladen to solidify this position, or else they drop to the tier of 2s, then Kinston moves to 2, East Bladen would be 3, could also slide to the West bracket) 3-Kinston (10) 4-Southwest Onslow (31) (needs to beat Croatan to solidify spot in tier of 1s, or else they drop to tier of 2s) ----------------------------- Tier of Conference #2s, seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 5-Clinton (15) (can move up to tier of 1s with win over James Kenan AND a Wallace-Rose Hill win over East Duplin, would drop to tier of wild cards with loss to James Kenan, also a possibility they could move to 2AA) 6-East Bladen (16) (can move up to tier of 1s with win over South Columbus) 7-Edgar T. Beddingfield (30) (there is a possibility they could move to 2AA) 8-Hertford Co. (36) (there is a possibility they could move to 2AA) ------------------------------ Tier of At-Large/Wild Card playoff berths , seeded by most recent Adjusted Maxpreps Ranking (shown in parentheses) 9-Wallace-Rose Hill (28) (can move up to tier of 1s with win over East Duplin AND a James Kenan win over Clinton, would move up to tier of 2s with win over East Duplin AND a Clinton win over James Kenan) 10-Whiteville (29) (could slide to the West bracket) 11-James Kenan (41) (can move up to tier of 1s with win over Clinton AND East Duplin win over Wallace-Rose Hill, would move up to tier of 2s with win over Clinton AND Wallace-Rose Hill win over East Duplin 12-Ayden-Grifton (42) 13-Bertie Co. (43) 14-Greene Central (46) 15-Goldsboro (54) 16-First Flight (58) ----------------------------- On the outside looking in right now; in danger of missing the playoffs -Teams ranked in the 50s would be in as wild cards, but their conference finishing position is holding them back -#50-Roanoke Rapids: needs to beat Bunn to force a three way tie (also including Vance Co).....if they get in, they would most likely bump out Vance Co., unless Vance were to win the draw, which could bump out Lexington or whoever is #66 in the final rankings) -#53-Red Springs: not looking too good; they needed to beat St. Pauls AND West Bladen and get into a three way tie for 4th place in their conference, but lost to St. Pauls, almost no chance for them now in 6th place unless Fairmont (5th place, ranked #76) winds up having to forfeit conference wins, which could allow Red Springs to move up from 6th to 5th -#55-Anson Co.: finished 4th in conference, while 3rd place Forest Hills is ranked #79 and almost certainly not getting in, which means Anson is almost certainly not getting in (therefore Anson almost certainly not getting in unless unless Forest Hills winds up having to forfeit conference wins for some reason) -#57-Nash Central: finished 4th in conference, while 3rd place Farmville Central is ranked #78 and almost certainly not getting in (therefore Nash Ce. almost certainly not getting in unless Farmville Central winds up having to forfeit conference wins for some reason) ------------------------------- -Teams ranked 69 or lower (for the moment) are on the outside looking in, hoping for a Maxpreps Miracle on Saturday; if maybe the right teams win and lose this week and their strength of schedule gets a boost; these teams could be helped by an Oak Grove loss to Salisbury, a seemingly less-likely Carrboro loss to Jordan-Matthews....or any team listed above as a playoff team missing the playoffs for reasons such as ineligible players causing wins to be forfeited (see Wilkes Central below) or being declared ineligible for the playoffs if 3 or more players get ejected for fighting in this week's final games -#69-T. Wingate Andrews (already played 11 games) -#70-Newton-Conover (already played 11 games) -#71-North Wilkes (has a game with Elkin this week) -#72-Wilkes Central (already played 11 games, recently announced a forfeit loss due to an ineligible player; which virtually burst its playoff bubble, very unlikely they would jump into top 67 or 68 without playing a game this week)
  19. tarheelg61581

    Wilkes Central Forfeits Game

    Yes, this is possible....many teams from Columbus Co. have been in the West in multiple sports in the past and it could happen again this year.....last year, Whiteville made a trip to Mountain Heritage....I'm at South Granville.....and we have been 2AA the last five years, but if we fall to small 2A this year, we could be in the West.....one way to get away from it (and even then it's not guaranteed) would be to go to pod system....but then people would complain about so many conference rematch games in the early rounds of the playoffs
  20. tarheelg61581

    Wilkes Central Forfeits Game

    I still think Owen will be in....they were ahead of Wilkes Central in the previous run of adjusted maxpreps rankings anyway....it definitely helps Owen in that one less team is possibly gaining ground on them...but remember that whether Wilkes Central would be 2A or 2AA has nothing to do with whether or not Owen would get into the playoffs....it's about the adjusted maxpreps rankings to see who gets the wild cards first to fill out the 64 teams that qualify for the playoffs....THEN those 64 get split into 2AA & 2A....then those two groups of 32 get split into West & East based on longitude (and like last year, don't be surprised if teams geographically west of Greensboro go in the East bracket in 2AA, while a couple of teams to the east of Raleigh could be in the small 2A West bracket)....We know the longitudes have not changed, but really would like to see this week's updated adjusted rankings and this year's updated ADM numbers so we can update projections
  21. tarheelg61581

    Wilkes Central Forfeits Game

    Last year, they either were, or would have been 2AA...can't remember if they made the playoffs or not
  22. tarheelg61581

    Wilkes Central Forfeits Game

    This loss could end the Eagles' chances of making the playoffs.....they were sitting right on the bubble with a #64 (adjusted) ranking last week, now probably going to drop too low to get in
  23. -We. Highlands: Mtn Heritage has clinched 1, Owen is in a great spot to get a wild card -Mtn 6: Pisgah has clinched 1, Smoky Mtn has clinched 2, Brevard, Franklin, and Hendersonville will most certainly be wild cards, E. Henderson has a chance to get a wild card but not a done deal -Mtn Valley: Ashe Co. has clinched 1, Wilkes Ce. is one of those teams right on the bubble whose ranking was 64 last week, they have a chance to get in, will depend on the new rankings -We. Pied.: W. Stokes has clinched 1, N. Surry has clinched 2, don't look for anybody else in the playoffs, Forbush has the best chance, but still a huge long shot -Swe.: Shelby has clinched 1, S. Point has clinched 2, E. Rutherford will be one of the first wild cards in with their ranking, don't look for more than three from this league -Nwe. Fthlls: Hibriten has clinched 1, Foard has clinched 2, Patton is almost assured of a wild card berth, W. Iredell is right on the bubble, could go either way on making playoffs or not, depending on final rankings -S. Fork: Bandys has clinched 1, N. Lincoln has clinched 2, W. Lincoln & Maiden are locks for a wild card, Newton-Conover and East Lincoln both on the bubble, whoever wins their game Mon, Nov. 5 is in a good spot, loser of that game probably out but not necessarily; depends on rankings -Rocky River: Winner of Mt Pleasant/W. Stanly game will be 1, loser of that game will be 2, don't look for more than two bids from this league, unless 3rd place Forest Hills takes a HUGE leap in rankings, they were 86 last week, Anson Co. had ranking of 43 last week but finished 4th, and can't make playoffs unless Forest Hills does also -Ce. Car.: Ledford has clinched 1, N. Davidson has clinched 2, Salisbury has clinched 3, Thomasville looks like a lock for a wild card, both Lexington & Oak Grove are on the bubble, depending on final rankings; Oak Grove could almost become a lock if they can beat Salisbury -PAC 7: Randleman has clinched 1, Wheatmore clinches 2 with win over Providence Grove, PG beating Wheatmore would result in 3 way tie for 2nd between Ea. Randolph, Wheatmore, & PG, all three appear to be locks for the playoffs, but whoever gets the 2 will get a much better playoff seed, and possibly host a 1st Rd game -Mid-St.: Winner of Reidsville & Cummings will clinch 1, loser will clinch 2, most expect Reidsville in a cake walk, Carrboro is also a bubble team that could get one of the last wild card spots depending on final rankings -No. Car.: S. Granville has clinched 1, needs to beat Webb to clinch a very high playoff seed, winner of Bunn/Roanoke Rapids game will clinch 3 (as 1A Granville Central has clinched 2nd overall in league), if Bunn loses to RR, they should still get a wild card, if RR loses to Bunn, they could be left out of playoffs thanks to their loss to Vance Co. -E. Ce.: Going into the final week, there is a four way tie for first, easier to project than a three way tie though, because we know, that by the end of Friday, there will be two teams tied for first with 1 loss, and 2 teams tied for third with two losses, the two with one loss will be autobids, seeded as a 1 and 2, the teams with two losses will most certainly get in as wild cards, to get the 1 seed, E. Duplin needs to beat W-RH, AND hope that Clinton beats JK, W-RH needs to beat E. Duplin, AND hope that JK beats Clinton, Clinton needs to beat JK, AND hope that W-RH beats E. Duplin, JK needs to beat Clinton, AND hope that E. Duplin beats W-RH, Goldsboro is also in a good spot to make the playoffs as a wild card -Ea. Plains: SW Edgecombe has clinched 1, Beddingfield has clinched 2, expecting these to be the only teams in from this league, as Farmville Ce. finished 3rd with ranking of 84 before last week, they would have to take a HUGE leap up the rankings to open the door for themselves or 4th place Nash Ce., who was ranked 63 last week -Ea. Car.: Kinston has clinched 1, West Craven can clinch 2 with a win over N. Lenoir, or else we are looking at a 3 way tie for 2nd with those two plus Ayden-Grifton, Washington also figures to make the playoffs, but could be iffy depending on final rankings, they need to beat N. Lenoir to help their resume -Coastal 8: Winner of SW Onslow/Croatan game will clinch 1, loser will clinch 2, Richlands and Trask are both right on the bubble, and need to finish strong to help their ranking...Richlands plays Lejeune, Trask plays Pender, these two could both get in, definitely aided by those teams in other leagues with much higher rankings but buried below a team in final conference standings with much lower ranking -Nea/Co: Winner of Northeastern has clinched 1, Hertford Co. has clinched 2, Currituck Co., Bertie Co. appear to be locks, First Flight also appears to be in a good spot, but has to hope nothing crazy happens in the final rankings, they could use a win this week over Bear Grass Ch. to solidify their resume and snap losing streak
  24. tarheelg61581

    Playoff Projections

    As others may have alluded to, on this and other threas....don't take any projections too seriously until we get this year's ADM numbers....I've toyed with working on my own using last year's numbers, and there are some teams we know will be 2AA, and some we know that will be small 2A, but there is so much uncertainty about those close to the cutoff line....even after the numbers get released, we still won't know for sure until we can pinpoint which 64 teams will qualify for the playoffs, and that will come down to the last version of the Adjusted Maxpreps Rankings are released, which won't get released until seeding Saturday, at the same time the preliminary brackets are released....Last year after the last games were played on Friday night, I took a shot in the dark and guessed right on how the Week 12 games would affect the rankings and which 64 would qualify (if I remember correctly, the big winner last year that jumped in was West Iredell), but that was when margin of victory actually did come into play....going to be more of a guessing game this year without margin of victory mattering.....this year another odd piece to the puzzle will be the possibility of teams with decent Adjusted Maxpreps rankings getting left behind because of where they finish in their conference.....there are a number of teams with rankings in the 40s or 50s hoping for an at-large bid, who would have gotten in last year, just based on that ranking, who, this year, are in danger of being left out if they finish in their conference final standings behind a team whose ranking is in 60s, 70s, or 80s (Red Springs for example, their loss to Fairmont could keep them out, if they finish tied with Fairmont).....there will probably be more than one league that will not get any at-large bids (only their allotted automatic bids)....while the Mountain Six will probably get all six in, provided East Henderson doesn't fall too far these last couple of weeks.
  25. tarheelg61581

    Playoff Projections

    Yes about a month ago, when Owen beat somebody, (Polk i think, can't remember), it really felt like a de facto playoff clinching game for both teams and whoever would take 3rd place overall in the conference....maxpreps ranking would only affect their seeding....even with a loss to Mtn Heritage I think Owen will still finish 3rd overall in conference and be in, at least that's what it looked like last time I checked
×