A SIMPLE PLAN, PART 2

A SIMPLE PLAN, PART 2

So the yelling for years is that the playoffs system in South Carolina is flawed. We tolerated the Division of the largest classification for years with the largest 16 schools automatically making the playoffs for their division. That was ridiculous when we had many of those 16 teams barely winning any games making the playoffs every year. We pushed for years to get a 5 Class system with one champion per class so that we wouldn't produce 7 state champions in four classifications. We finally got the 5 class split but we are still allowing 32 teams per class, except in 1A, to make the playoffs. This year in the Class 5A, we have 12 teams in the playoffs without a winning record. Six of those twelve teams have losing records. We have a 2-8 Stratford team going to play Dutch Fork in the first round. We have a 2-8 Woodmont team facing off against Dorman.

Guys, the fact is the current system calls for 32 teams but we don't have 32 teams worthy of playoffs. So after talking this thing over with my friend, Coach Brian Hucks of Lexington (baseball and assistant AD), we came to an idea that we could both agree on. Brian is one of the most respected baseball coaches in the state and has a good head on him in terms of thinking about tournament seeding, etc. Once I drafted this I bounced it off of a few of the 5A Coaches around the state and they all like it. The one thing we all agree on is that the at-large bids (will be 8 of them in a 8 region system) must be selected with a formula based on strength of schedule...an RPI type of formula. It cannot be 8 guys sitting in a room selecting them subjectively or we will have the same politics we have with the all-star games.

PROPOSAL POINTS
1. 24 TEAM BRACKET
2. Region winners and Runner Up get automatic bids (thats 14 teams in our current 7 region system in 5A) Next season there will be 8 regions.
3. The Region winners +1 runner up will get byes in the first round. That +1 would be selected by committee/RPI. 
4. Those 14 teams will be seeded 1-14 because they are the automatics. Next year it will be 16 teams seeded 1-16. Those seedings wold be based on the RPI of each of those 16 teams
5. The remaining 10 teams would be selected and seeded 15-24 by committee and RPI strength of schedule formula. Next season it will only be 8 teams making at large bids so it would be 17 through 24 being seeded at that point. 
6. Home games go to the higher seeds, which is based on RPI
 
RPI INFORMATION
RPI = (0.375 × WP) + (0.375 × OWP) + (0.25 × OOWP)
 
How are the components of the formula specifically calculated?
  • Winning percentage (WP): Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. If a win in an individual contest gives that contest a winning percentage of 1.00, a tie would give that individual contest a winning percentage of .500 for both teams.
  • Opponents' winning percentage (OWP): Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. (Note: This is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents, instead by averaging each winning percentage of the opponents.) All games involving the team whose RPI is being calculated are ignored in this process.
  • Opponents' opponents winning percentage (OOWP): The same process as described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. Note that there is an exception for out-of-state teams, which is addressed below.
How would out-of-state opponents be handled?
When calculating out-of-state opponents, their direct winning percentage (for example, .750) will count toward the formula, but each of their opponents will have a .500 winning percentage assigned. Were this not the case, schools would be chasing tens of thousands of opponents of out-of-state opponents over the course of a season, and there is no way to ensure the accuracy of that data.

The .500 figure was selected because it is the average value of opponents' opponents winning percentages across all sports in the data we've run.  

Granted, there are still going to be a couple of teams who are questionable with .500 records just to round out 24 but this is better than what we have now. Below is a sample of what this year's bracket would look like if we had a system like this in place.




About Jim Baxter

Jim Baxter is a former coach and nationally published recruiting analyst with more than three decades in the industry. He founded SCVarsity.com as one of the first high school sites on the Rivals.com Network, most recently with Yahoo Sports. He is the author of the best selling "The Book On Evaluating Football Players" and is the host of the South Carolina High School Scoreboard Show on 107.5 The Game. He has operated the oldest independently run combine, coached for the Nike Football Combines and Elite 11 since 1999. He has served in the past on the broadcast crew in both radio and TV for the Shrine Bowl of the Carolinas, as well as the North-South All-Star game. He was a member of the coaching staff for the 2015 Max Emfinger All-American game.